Fertilizer import and export data of Chinese Mainland in the first three quarters of 2024

On October 14th, the General Administration of Customs of China released preliminary import and export statistics for the first three quarters, with the following specific analysis:

➩Import of fertilizers

In September of this year, 1.3 million tons of various fertilizers were imported, a year-on-year increase of 13%; From January to September this year, a total of 10.38 million tons of various fertilizers were imported, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.   

Comment:
1. The significant increase in fertilizer imports is mainly reflected in potassium fertilizer, which is bearish on domestic potassium fertilizer prices;
2. Preliminary assessment shows that the import volume of potassium fertilizer exceeded 1 million tons in September.

➩Export of fertilizers

In September of this year, 3.24 million tons of various fertilizers were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 14% and a month on month decrease of 19.8%; From January to September this year, a total of 22.95 million tons of various fertilizers were exported, an increase of 1.3% year-on-year.  

Comment:
1. This year, the export volume of ammonium sulfate has increased significantly, while the export volume of urea has decreased significantly. The quantity shows a year-on-year increase in exports, but the total export volume of nutrients will decrease significantly compared to the same period last year;

2. The export volume in September showed a significant decrease compared to the previous month and year on year, which ensured the use of fertilizer in autumn in China. At the same time, it indicates that the export of phosphate fertilizer may not have grown beyond expectations (specific data will be released around the 20th);

3. From the perspective of export volume, China has a strong ability to ensure the supply of domestic fertilizers;

4. It is expected that the export volume of fertilizers in October may continue to decline year-on-year and month on month, laying a good foundation for stabilizing winter storage fertilizer prices.